Bitcoin’s Path to $150K: How Two Whales Are Holding Back the Rally

Key Takeaways:

• Nakamoto CEO identifies two significant Bitcoin whales as the primary obstacle to price appreciation.
• Technical indicators such as the RSI reflect weakened bullish momentum.
• Institutional adoption by firms like Metaplanet continues to grow, underscoring long-term confidence.

On September 2, David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin holding company Nakamoto, projected that Bitcoin possesses the potential to rally to $150,000. He contends that sustained selling pressure from two major Bitcoin whales is currently the principal factor inhibiting this rally. Their substantial trades are effectively suppressing the market's upward trajectory.

Bitcoin Whales Activity Sparks Continuous Flash Crashes

In a post on X, Bailey asserts that if selling stops, the BTC price could climb. With Bitcoin currently trading near $110,000, a climb to $150,000 would represent an approximate 36% gain.

The only reason we’re not at $150k right now is two massive whales- once they’re slain (1 down, 1 halfway there)… up only.

— David Bailey🇵🇷 $1.0mm/btc is the floor (@DavidFBailey) September 2, 2025

Bitcoin whales, known as entities holding vast quantities of BTC, wield immense market influence. Their transactions can catalyze dramatic price movements within minutes. This power has kept the market on edge, particularly throughout recent weeks.

A series of actions by these whales has already induced severe flash crashes.

On August 21, a long-term holder moved a $4 billion position from Bitcoin to Ether via the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid.

Just days later, on August 24, another whale sold 24,000 BTC worth $2.7 billion. The sell-off caused an immediate flash crash. 

Market data from QCP showed that about $500 million in leveraged positions were liquidated within minutes. For traders, it was a brutal reminder of the risks when large holders move.

Bailey's perspective finds support among other analysts. 

Bitcoin veteran Willy Woo has consistently argued that the tempered growth of this cycle stems from an oversupply controlled by a concentration of early whales.

Why is BTC moving up so slowly this cycle?

BTC supply is concentrated around OG whales who peaked their holdings in 2011 (orange and dark orange).

They bought their BTC at $10 or lower. It takes $110k+ of new capital to absorb each BTC they sell. pic.twitter.com/7CbWXsvX2l

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) August 24, 2025

Many of these whales bought Bitcoin years ago, some as far back as 2011, when prices were below $10. 

Now, every time one of them sells, the market needs more than $110,000 in fresh capital to absorb a single coin.

This creates an imbalance. The Bitcoin whales sell in increments, but their holdings are massive. Buyers must bring in billions to keep the BTC price moving upward. 

Until that imbalance shifts, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to sudden shocks and slower recoveries.

Hopes of ATH Boosts Continue to Fuel Bitcoin Adoption

Despite these price setbacks, institutional adoption continues to rise. On August 25, Metaplanet deepened its Bitcoin treasury strategy by purchasing 103 Bitcoins and another 1,009 BTC on September 1, officially surpassing the 20,000 BTC milestone.

For Metaplanet and others, the motivation is clear. The hope of a price rebound continues to drive accumulation. This persistence comes even after Bitcoin's recent 11.42% pullback from its August 14 all-time high of $124,457.

Still, the wider market shows mixed signals. 

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded outflows of $126.7 million on August 29, suggesting investor caution. 

At the same time, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 43.36, pointing toward weaker momentum. In technical terms, this means Bitcoin is not in oversold territory yet, but also lacks strong buying pressure to reverse quickly.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 43.36, pointing toward weaker momentum. In technical terms, this means Bitcoin is not in oversold territory yet, but also lacks strong buying pressure to reverse quickly.

Even so, bullish projections remain. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently suggested Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030.

Nevertheless, the debate continues. Can Bitcoin push past whale-driven selling and reach new highs? Or will the heavy hands of early holders keep dragging the BTC price down? 

What remains clear is that adoption grows even in the face of volatility, and with every new cycle, the influence of Bitcoin whales on market direction is tested again.