Bitcoin’s Safe-Haven Appeal Faces US-China Trade Deal Scrutiny

Key Takeaway:

• The US-China trade deal could reveal if Bitcoin thrives on uncertainty or fundamentals.
• Bitcoin outpaces the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, but its staying power remains unproven.
• Saylor pushed Microsoft to adopt Bitcoin, joining firms like Strategy and Metaplanet in accumulation.

A new analyst projection suggests Bitcoin’s response to an expected US-China trade deal will test its credibility as a safe-haven asset. 

If trade uncertainty has driven Bitcoin’s recent gains, its price could stabilize or decline once a deal is reached. 

Conversely, continued growth post-deal might indicate deeper global adoption beyond speculative hedging.

Could Washington’s Liberation Tariff Agreement Affect Bitcoin Adoption?

In an X post on May 11, popular crypto trader “Daan Crypto” explained that BTC price has outperformed stocks since the U.S. introduced its trade tariffs. 

$BTC Has outperformed stocks since "Liberation" / Tariff Day on the 2nd of April.

It held up incredibly strong during a sharp sell off on stocks in April.

It then also proceeded to outperform as the markets bounced and tariffs were implemented.

Back then people were wondering… pic.twitter.com/gfvfH80TVP

— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) May 11, 2025

This latest development on tariff policy kicked off on April 2, when President Trump declared “Liberation Day” and rolled out a 10% baseline tariff on all U.S. imports. 

The policy didn’t stop there. 

Washington went further, imposing a 145% duty on Chinese goods. Just days later, China retaliated, raising tariffs on U.S. goods from 34% to 125%. 

This led to a sharp rise in global economic tension and a swift market reaction.

Despite the resulting stock market sell-off in April, Bitcoin’s price remained remarkably stable. 

A Wintermute report echoed this resilience, noting Bitcoin’s ability to withstand broader market downturns. 

At the time, speculation arose that governments or institutions might be using Bitcoin to bypass tariffs or financial restrictions.

Now, the market faces a critical test.

There’s growing anticipation that a US-China trade deal could be announced in the coming days or weeks. 

🚨RUMOR:

🇺🇸 USA AND 🇨🇳 CHINA TO ANNOUNCE ZERO TO ZERO TARIFF DEAL TOMORROW

IF TRUE, GLOBAL MARKETS WILL EXPLODE HARD!!! pic.twitter.com/DyqKXd3Mkn

— Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) May 11, 2025

Daan Crypto believes that if Bitcoin’s recent outperformance was largely driven by trade uncertainty, then we should expect the BTC price to stabilize or cool off once a deal is reached.

However, if the BTC price continues to climb even after a deal is finalized, it may signal that global interest is growing for reasons that go beyond hedging or speculation.

Such a shift could help accelerate global adoption and strengthen the Bitcoin market position as a non-political store of value.

What is the Motive Behind Continuous Bitcoin Acquisitions? 

As the world watches for Bitcoin’s reaction to the trade deal, corporations are aggressively accumulating the cryptocurrency.

Last week, Michael Saylor, the Chairman of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), urged Microsoft to embrace Bitcoin. 

He pointed out that Bitcoin has delivered 62% annual returns over the past five years, far beyond Microsoft’s 18%, and well above the S&P 500’s 14% average.

His pitch to Microsoft comes days after Strategy added 6,556 BTC to its balance sheet. That brings the firm’s total to 538,200 BTC, strengthening its grip as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.

Others are joining the race.

Metaplanet, a Tokyo-based investment firm, announced it issued 3.6 billion yen ($24.7 million) through zero-interest bonds to accumulate more Bitcoin. The firm plans to hit 10,000 BTC by year’s end. 

This buying spree raises questions about its long-term impact.

According to crypto analyst Adam Livingston, Strategy’s buying spree is creating “synthetic halving.” 

Strategy is synthetically halving Bitcoin and will set the cost of capital for the next 100 years.

Most people think the Bitcoin supply curve is sacred.

Fixed. Immutable. Untouchable.

They're wrong.

Strategy is manually rewriting Bitcoin’s scarcity schedule right now with…

— Adam Livingston (@AdamBLiv) April 27, 2025

While Bitcoin’s supply cuts in half every four years. But if Strategy continues to purchase 30%, 40%, or even 50% of all newly mined Bitcoin, it would create sudden scarcity.

If supply tightens while demand stays strong, buyers will pay more. 

Lending Bitcoin becomes expensive, turning it into a privilege only corporate titans like Strategy can afford.