Strategy’s Aggressive Purchases Could Rewrite Bitcoin’s Economics: Analyst

Strategy’s Bitcoin Hoard Surpasses Miner Production Since October—Analysts Say It Mimics a Halving as Institutional Demand Surges.

Posted by: Jimmy Aki

Updated Apr 29th, 2025 2 minutes read

Key Takeaways:

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has acquired 285,980 BTC since October 2024, more than miners produced.
Analyst says this could mimic a Bitcoin halving, reducing supply.
Institutions' demand for Bitcoin is rising, with firms like Metaplanet and 21 Capital making inroads.

Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston claims Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, is effectively creating a “synthetic halving” effect by aggressively purchasing newly minted BTC. Since October 2024, Strategy has bought 285,980 BTC. This is more than the total supply generated by miners in that period.

Continuous BTC Acquisitions Could Control Supply Dynamics

In an April 27 post on X (formerly Twitter), Livingston, author of The Bitcoin Age, noted that while Bitcoin’s supply is often seen as immutable, Strategy’s buying power is effectively rewriting scarcity dynamics.

Post-2024 halving, miners produce roughly 450 BTC daily (13,500 monthly). Yet Strategy’s recent purchases, such as 6,556 BTC ($555.8 million) in a single week, threaten to absorb up to 50% of new supply, accelerating scarcity ahead of Bitcoin’s natural four-year halving cycle.

Strategy is synthetically halving Bitcoin and will set the cost of capital for the next 100 years.

Most people think the Bitcoin supply curve is sacred.

Fixed. Immutable. Untouchable.

They're wrong.

Strategy is manually rewriting Bitcoin’s scarcity schedule right now with…
— Adam Livingston (@AdamBLiv) April 27, 2025

According to Livingston, if Strategy continues buying 30%, 40%, or even 50% of all new Bitcoin, it will slash the available supply ahead of the natural Bitcoin halving schedule.

Bitcoin halvings, which reduce mining rewards by 50% every four years, are designed to curb inflation. The April 2024 halving cuts block rewards to 3.125 BTC. But Livingston argues that Strategy’s buying spree introduces a new, unpredictable layer of scarcity, one that doesn't wait for four-year cycles.

He believes this synthetic halving effect has unfolded quietly over the past six months.

Since October 1, 2024, Strategy has accumulated 285,980 BTC. That’s an average of 1,571 BTC daily, far outstripping miners’ output.

Made a miscalculation, folks…

Strategy has accumulated 285,980 BTC since October 1st.

Point still stands.
— Adam Livingston (@AdamBLiv) April 27, 2025

Livingston explained that as Bitcoin becomes increasingly scarce, buyers should expect to pay premiums.

Lending Bitcoin will cost more. Borrowing Bitcoin will become an elite privilege, a luxury available only to corporate giants and governments.

Stablecoin Giants and Institutions Merge to Fire Up Bitcoin Acquisitions

Livingston didn't stop there. He projected that anyone seeking exposure to Bitcoin in the near future would be left with three options. First, buy Strategy’s MSTR stock at a premium. Second, borrow Bitcoin at high rates. Third, plead for liquidity from Bitcoin’s emerging overlords.

Without these options, the analyst believes individuals would simply have to accept their status as fiat peasants, locked out of the Bitcoin economy.

Livingston’s assertions come at a critical time.

According to a recent market report by the New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG), Bitcoin stands out as the only top crypto asset exclusively focused on monetary and store-of-value functions.

This has triggered other institutions to follow Strategy’s aggressive accumulation trends, further reinforcing the analyst’s synthetic halving theory.

So far this month, Metaplanet Inc. has added 319 and 330 BTC to its balance sheet in quick succession. With these additions, Metaplanet now holds approximately 4,855 BTC.

Major players in the financial world are also making moves.

Brandon Lutnick, Chairman of Cantor Fitzgerald, announced plans to launch a new Bitcoin investment company called 21 Capital.

The new firm has secured a $3 billion Bitcoin war chest backed by Tether, SoftBank, and Bitfinex.

https://twitter.com/TFTC21/status/1914837233758294511

To further expand its Bitcoin acquisitions, 21 Capital would raise an additional $350 million through convertible bonds and another $200 million through private equity placements.

Jimmy Aki

Drawing from his background in economics, Jimmy has monitored blockchain development for years, firmly believing in its power to democratise finance. Beyond offering commentary on the latest crypto developments, he also spends his time analysing open-source codes of promising projects on GitHub. Jimmy holds Bitcoin and Ethereum.